The Emotional Pulse Behind Bitcoin’s Enduring Cycle

Human emotion — not just halving — may be the invisible hand driving Bitcoin’s fabled four-year cycle, according to Gemini’s Saad Ahmed, who believes the pattern will continue to shape the market “in some form.”

The emotional DNA of the Bitcoin cycle

At the recent Token2049 conference in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, head of the APAC region at Gemini, spoke about the persistence of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. While the industry has evolved rapidly, Ahmed told Cointelegraph that investor psychology remains central to the cryptocurrency market’s rhythmic rise and fall.

“It ultimately stems from people getting really excited and overextending themselves,” he explained. “Then you kind of see a crash, and it corrects to an equilibrium. It’s the same emotional pattern repeating over time.”

Ahmed suggested that while macroeconomic and structural factors — including halving events — play their part, the human element gives the cycle its pulse. “You’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately it’s driven by human emotion,” he added, noting that institutional expansion could soften the extremes of volatility that have historically defined Bitcoin’s behaviour.

His remarks reignited industry discussion over whether Bitcoin’s seemingly ritualistic four-year rhythm, typically aligned with the halving events that reduce miners’ rewards, still holds true in an increasingly institutional market.

Market sentiment: logic meets emotion

The theory of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle — boom, crash, consolidation, and recovery — has been a cornerstone of Bitcoin halving analysis since its earliest days. Each halving traditionally triggers supply contractions followed by bull runs. Yet Ahmed’s comments move the focus away from blockchain mechanics and toward markets’ oldest catalyst: psychology.

Despite the sophistication of algorithmic trading, Bitcoin remains a narrative-driven asset. When optimism surges, liquidity follows; when fear spreads, markets retreat. For recruiters in the crypto recruitment and web3 recruitment fields, this cyclical energy often translates into waves of hiring and contraction across blockchain firms, particularly those dependent on speculative capital.

According to Ahmed, “institutional growth could dampen volatility,” potentially smoothing the boom-and-bust extremes, but the cyclical momentum itself is unlikely to vanish. “Markets are made of people,” he said, “and people are emotional.”

Analysts say patterns remain — but time may be running out

Recent research by blockchain analytics company Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s 2024 price behaviour still appears to be echoing its historical post-halving pattern. If that rhythm continues, October could mark the cycle’s peak, according to independent analyst Rekt Capital.

Writing in July, Rekt Capital noted that “if this cycle mirrors 2020, the market would likely peak in October — around 550 days after the April 2024 halving.” Yet he warned that “we have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left.”

That forecast puts the next few weeks in sharp focus for traders, investors and even blockchain recruitment agencies planning their 2025 strategies around market momentum. When price growth accelerates, appetite for new hires across DeFi, trading, and infrastructure sectors historically follows.

Bitcoin nears record highs once again

Bitcoin’s market activity appears to support a sense of cyclical build-up. The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 11.5% over the past week to reach $123,850, just shy of its $124,100 all-time high recorded in mid-August, data from CoinMarketCap shows.

In parallel, crypto markets have seen renewed speculative energy tied to macro shifts, institutional flows, and geopolitical themes. Over the last 18 months, a surge in Bitcoin integration into US financial discussions and expanding ETF inflows have given professional investors greater confidence in digital assets as a long-term play.

Not everyone, however, believes the traditional pattern will hold.

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan: “2026 will be an up year”

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, recently challenged the idea that Bitcoin cycles unfold with predictable repetition. Speaking in July, Hougan predicted a more fluid market trajectory: “I bet 2026 is an up year,” he said, adding, “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”

His optimism reflects a growing belief that structural adoption — from fintech integrations to sovereign fund exposure — is gradually insulating Bitcoin from the extreme volatility of its early years.

Strategists point out that this institutional phase may make price corrections shorter and recovery quicker, fundamentally redefining long-term investor behaviour and the demand for blockchain talent. As companies scale through market peaks, they increasingly turn to specialist blockchain headhunters and web3 talent acquisition experts to capture scarce engineering, compliance, and trading expertise before the next momentum wave.

October optimism: historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter

Adding further intrigue to the current cycle debate, data from CoinGlass reveals that the final quarter of the year — beginning October 1 — has been Bitcoin’s most lucrative historically. Since 2013, Q4 has delivered an average return of 79.39%, making it the market’s most reliable bullish stretch.

That statistic amplifies traders’ hope of another record run before the year’s end. Yet, as Ahmed emphasised, the underlying driver may not be purely mathematical. “Cycles reflect human behaviour,” he said. “That’s what keeps them coming back.”

A behavioural lens on blockchain economics

Ahmed’s framing of Bitcoin’s rhythm as an emotional, rather than mechanical, mechanism marks a subtle but crucial shift in how industry leaders interpret market data. Rather than viewing each halving as a predictable script, he suggests cycles are expressions of collective sentiment — the euphoria, greed, fear and capitulation that continue to define investor psychology even in an algorithmic age.

This behavioural interpretation aligns with what recruiters at Spectrum Search observe across the crypto recruitment agency landscape. When optimism surges — whether after ETF approvals, major integrations, or bull-market highs — demand for developers, marketers, and analysts skyrockets. Conversely, downturns typically bring contraction, restructuring, and a renewed focus on compliance and cybersecurity hiring, as seen after previous cycles such as the 2024 crypto heist wave.

Institutional maturity and the next phase of the cycle

Ahmed’s belief that institutional presence will moderate future downturns echoes a broader shift towards maturity in the crypto space. With hedge funds, banks, and sovereign investors deploying structured risk models, Bitcoin’s corrections may become less severe — but still shaped by the mood of participants.

Blockchain-native firms are already preparing for this hybrid future — one blending emotional markets with analytical architecture. The shift is driving new specialisations in risk management, on-chain analytics and behavioural finance — fields now in high demand across DeFi recruitment and cryptocurrency recruiter networks.

While algorithms quantify buying pressure, the real story behind Bitcoin’s endurance, Ahmed proposed, is profoundly human: our collective tendency to chase opportunity, test limits, falter and rebuild — over and over again.

In that sense, whether through halvings or habits, Bitcoin’s next “cycle” may prove less about code — and more about crowd psychology.