In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, the spotlight often shifts rapidly from one development to another. Currently, all eyes are on Ethereum as it enters a phase of high speculation, especially with the impending launch of spot Ether ETFs. However, a notable analyst has flagged potential concerns about Ethereum’s supply risk, which could influence its trajectory in the coming months.
Understanding Ethereum’s Supply Dynamics Post-Merge
Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has recently highlighted a critical issue regarding Ethereum’s supply. According to Cowen, there’s a looming risk of Ethereum reverting to its pre-Merge supply levels. “If the supply of ETH keeps increasing by ~60k/month like it has been since April, then by Dec the supply will be back to what it was at the merge,” Cowen explained in a recent X post.
The Ethereum network underwent a significant transformation with the Merge in September 2022, transitioning to a proof-of-stake consensus model. This shift was expected to introduce a deflationary mechanism to the network, reducing the overall supply of ETH. Indeed, data indicated a drop of approximately 455,000 ETH by April 2024. However, the trend has seen a reversal over the past three months, with an increase of around 150,000 ETH.
Cowen’s analysis suggests that if this rate of increase continues, Ethereum could see its supply inflate back to levels observed before the Merge. This potential increase in supply could have various implications for the market dynamics and pricing of ETH.
Spot Ether ETFs: A New Chapter
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has announced that five spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will begin trading on July 23, pending regulatory approval. This development follows the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on May 23 to approve rule changes, allowing the listing of several spot Ether ETFs.
The ETFs poised to debut include the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, and Franklin Ethereum ETF. This move should significantly boost Ethereum’s visibility and accessibility to a broader range of investors.
Price Predictions and Market Movements
While many view the introduction of spot Ether ETFs positively, Cowen cautions that the initial excitement might eventually wane. “If it follows 2016, then ETH/BTC final capitulation will not start until September 2024, which would provide enough time for the novelty of the spot ETF relative to BTC to potentially wear off,” he noted.
Despite the potential for a short-term decline in Ether’s price within the next “3-6 months,” Cowen remains optimistic about the long-term prospects, suggesting that in 1.5 years, the price of Ether will “likely be higher” than its current levels. As of now, Ether is trading at $3,507, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Looking Ahead
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability. Developments like the introduction of spot Ether ETFs could bring substantial changes, not just in trading volumes but also in the general perception of Ethereum as an asset. However, Cowen’s insights suggest that investors should monitor underlying factors, such as Ethereum’s supply risk, which could significantly impact the asset’s value over time.
For those keen on exploring further about Ethereum’s journey and its impact on the blockchain ecosystem, the Decade after Ethereum ICO: Blockchain forensics end double-spending debate offers an in-depth look.
As the crypto community waits to see how these new ETFs will perform, the broader implications for the Ethereum network and its native token remain a hot topic for analysts and investors alike.